Monsoon climate variability over the past century recorded by laminae stalagmite δ18O from southeastern Chongqing,China
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摘要: 以重庆市酉阳自治县天坑洞采集的石笋样本TK22-1为研究对象，通过高精度的230Th测年和石笋纹层计数法，构建了覆盖近百年历史的高分辨率δ18O序列。研究发现，石笋TK22-1δ18O变化与年平均温度显著正相关，与年平均湿度和年降水天数显著负相关，与年降水量呈负相关关系，但未达到显著性水平，但与当地干旱事件密切相关。表明与温度、降雨天数和湿度相关的区域水文状况是影响石笋δ18O的主要因素。石笋TK22-1的δ18O记录显示，过去100年亚洲夏季风（East Asian Summer Monsoon， EASM）持续减弱，尤其在20世纪80年代后，减弱趋势在中国季风区尤为显著，该现象的形成是自然因素与人为因素共同作用的结果。与全球其他气候指标对比，发现亚洲夏季风减弱与全球气温升高、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño-Southern Oscillation，ENSO）极端事件增多、大西洋经向翻转环流（Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation，AMOC）与太平洋沃克环流（Pacific Walker Circulation，PWC）减弱等现象有关，特别是温室气体排放，通过影响ENSO、AMOC和PWC等气候系统关键环节，间接导致了亚洲夏季风强度的减弱。Abstract:
This study adopted the stalagmite sample TK22-1 collected from Tiankeng Cave in Youyang Autonomous County, Chongqing, China, as the research object. A high-resolution δ18O sequence spanning the past century was reconstructed through a combination of high-precision 230Th dating and stalagmite laminae counting. This study reveals that the δ18O values of stalagmite TK22-1 exhibited a range of -6.03‰ to -7.29‰, with a mean value of -6.57‰. The positive shifts of δ18O (peaks) correspond well with recorded major drought events in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, such as the 2006 summer drought and the 1960 drought disaster. Correlation analyses show that δ18O variations exhibit a significant positive correlation with annual mean temperature but significant negative correlations with both annual mean humidity and the number of annual precipitation days. Although negatively correlated with total annual precipitation, this relationship does not reach statistical significance. Notably, the δ18O record closely corresponds to local drought events, indicating that regional hydrological conditions-such as temperature, the number of precipitation days, and humidity-are the dominant factors influencing stalagmite δ18O values. The nearly 100-year stalagmite δ18O time series shows distinct phases: δ18O remained consistently negative from 1900 to 1910, shifted to positive between 1910 and 1960, briefly decreased from 1960 to 1970, and have exhibited a consistently positive trend since 1970. Principal component analysis demonstrates that the positive δ18O trend in stalagmites from the Chinese monsoon region is spatially widespread, with a significant weakening observed after 1980. The observed weakening of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) results from a combination of natural variability, such as 11-year solar cycles and Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase shifts, and anthropogenic forcing including greenhouse gases and aerosols. The primary driving mechanisms including ENSO regime transitions, weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC), and aerosol effects. This trend is significantly associated with global rise in temperature, an increased frequency of extreme ENSO events, and the weakening of both the AMOC and the PWC. Wavelet analysis identifies significant ENSO-related periodicities (2 years to 7 years) in the δ18O record. Between 1960 and 2000, the ENSO system progressively shifted toward El Niño-like states, with Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events suppressing monsoon intensity. The weakening of AMOC reduces land-sea thermal gradients, while the weakening of PWC alters zonal sea surface temperature gradients; together, these changes diminish monsoon dynamics. -
Key words:
- stalagmite /
- oxygen isotope /
- monsoon climate change /
- laminae /
- influencing factor /
- Chongqing
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图 1 亚洲季风区地形和大气环流系统
红色箭头指示印度夏季风(ISM,Indian Summer Monsoon)轨迹，橙色箭头指示东亚夏季风(EASM,East Asian Summer Monsoon)轨迹。天坑洞(TK,红星)及相关洞穴所在位置(黄色圆形)，包括峨眉洞(EM)[16]、董哥洞(DG)[24]、东石崖洞(DSY)[25]、乌鸦洞(WY)[26]。
Figure 1. Topography and atmospheric circulation systems in the Asian Monsoon Region
Red arrow: trajectory of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM); orange arrow: trajectory of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM); red star: location of Tiankeng Cave (TK);yellow circle: caves related to Tiankeng Cave, including Emei Cave(EM)[16], Dongge Cave(DG)[24], Dongshiya Cave(DSY)[25], and Wuya Cave(WY)[26].
图 4 石笋 TK22-1 荧光年纹层与年代模型
Figure 4. Fluorescent annual laminae and age model of stalagmite TK22-1
图 5 亚洲季风区石笋记录与渝东南旱涝指数对比
(A) 天坑洞石笋TK22-1(本文) (B) 董哥洞石笋DX2[24] (C) 峨眉洞石笋EM1[16] (D) 东石崖洞石笋DSY1201[25] (E) 乌鸦洞石笋WY33[26] (F) 对TK22-1、DX2、EM1、DSY1201和WY33的主成分分析（PCA）结果 (G) 渝东南近100年旱涝指数（旱涝指数越大代表干旱程度越强）[33]，图中红色曲线为多项式拟合曲线，指示变化趋势；蓝色条带指示研究区发生的干旱事件
Figure 5. Comparison of stalagmite records from the Asian Monsoon Region and the drought-flood indices in Southeastern Chongqing
(A)stalagmite TK22-1 from Tiankeng Cave in this study (B) stalagmite DX2 from Dongge Cave[24] (C) stalagmite EM1 from Emei Cave[16] (D) stalagmite DSY1201 from Dongshiya Cave [25] (E) stalagmite WY33 from Wuya Cave [26] (F) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) results of TK22-1, DX2, EM1, DSY1201, and WY33 (G) drought-flood indices of southeastern Chongqing over the past 100 years (higher values indicating greater drought severity) [33], red curve for the polynomial fitting curve indicating the variation trend,and blue band for drought events occurring in the study area
图 6 TK22-1石笋 δ18O、年降水量(annual precipitation, AP)、年平均气温（Mean Annual Temperature, MAT）、年相对湿度（Annual Relative Humidity, ARH）和年降水日数（Annual Precipitation Days, APD）相关性图
(颜色由浅到深色表示相关性由弱到显著，数字表示相关性系数)
Figure 6. Correlation diagram of δ18O, Annual Precipitation (AP), Mean Annual Temperature (MAT), Annual Relative Humidity (ARH), and the number of Annual Precipitation Days (APD) of stalagmite TK22-1
(The colors, ranging from light to dark, indicate the strength of the correlation from weak to strong, while the numbers represent the correlation coefficients.)
图 7 石笋TK22-1氧同位素序列与酉阳地区1950—2016年器测气象资料对比
(A)酉阳自治县年降水量 (B)酉阳自治县年平均温度 (C)酉阳自治县年平均湿度 (D)年降水量 (E)石笋TK22-1氧同位素序列
Figure 7. Comparison between the oxygen isotope sequence of stalagmite TK22-1 and the instrumental meteorological data in Youyang area from 1950 to 2016
(A) annual precipitation days (B) mean annual temperature (C) mean annual humidity (D)annual precipitation (E) oxygen isotope sequence of stalagmite TK22-1
图 8 石笋TK22-1 δ18O记录的小波分析
注：图中黑色弧线表示95%置信界限。
Figure 8. Wavelet analysis of the δ18O record of stalagmite TK22-1
Note:black arc represents the 95% confidence limit.
图 9 亚洲夏季风记录与全球记录对比
(A)天坑洞石笋 TK22-1 δ18O记录(本文) (B) 东亚夏季风重建指数[41] (C)AMOC重建指数[42] (D) 太平洋沃克环流指数[43] （E）SST重建指数[44] （F）青藏高原东北部温度重建记录（浅蓝）[45],对流层温度重建（黑色）[46] (G)Niño3 区海表温度距平值[47] （H）达索普冰芯${\rm{SO}}_4^{2-} $(粉色)和灰尘粒子记录(紫色)[48] （I）火山气溶胶总负荷量(0~30°N)[49]，图中黄色区域指示季风快速减弱发生时期
Figure 9. Comparison of Asian Summer Monsoon records with global records
(A) δ18O record of stalagmite TK22-1 from Tiankeng Cave in this study (B) reconstruction index of the East Asian Summer Monsoon[41] (C) reconstruction index of AMOC[42] (D) Pacific Walker Circulation Index[43] (E) reconstruction index of SST[44] (F) temperature reconstruction records in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(light blue)[45], and tropospheric temperature reconstruction (black)[46] (G) sea surface temperature anomaly in Niño3 region[47] (H) ${\rm{SO}}_4^{2-} $ (pink) and dust particle record (purple) in Dasuopu ice core[48] (I) total volcanic aerosol load (0 to 30°N)[49], and the periods of rapid monsoon weakening (yellow areas)
表 1 石笋 TK22-1230Th 测年结果
Table 1. 230Th dating results of the stalagmite TK22-1
样品编号
Sample
number深度
Depth/mm238U
(×10−9)232Th
(×10−12)230Th/232Th
(atomic×10−6)δ234U
(measured)230Th / 238U
(activity)δ234UInitial*
(corrected)已校正Corrected230Th
年龄(年 公元) 230Th
Age (a AD)TK22-1-1 6 1602.7 ±4.06707 ±1358±0 79.7±2.6 0.0019 ±0.0001 80±3 1935±81 TK22-1-1 11 1496.2 ±3.2931±39 19±2 82.5±2.2 0.0015 ±0.0002 82±2 1904±31 TK22-1-2 17 1691.3 ±3.9051±42 25±2 83.1±2.2 0.0019 ±0.0002 83±2 1861±29 *Th衰变常数为λ230=9. 1705 ×10−6a−1，U衰变常数为λ234=2.82206 ×10−6 a−1，λ238=1.55125 ×10−10 a−1；δ 234U = ([234U/238U]activity−1)×1000 。 根据230Th年龄获得δ234U初始值=δ234U测量值×eλ234×T。初始年龄校正采用230Th /232Th平均比值：4.4±2.2×10−6。
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