中国西南农村人口减少对植物多样性的影响及阈值效应研究

罗青; 赵翠薇; 罗光杰; 冉晨; 张思蕊; 熊练; 杜朝超; 李明会; 沈晓倩; 杨姝; 张小芸; 白晓永

doi:10.11932/karst20260104

中国西南农村人口减少对植物多样性的影响及阈值效应研究

doi: 10.11932/karst20260104

罗青^{1, 2,},
赵翠薇¹,
罗光杰⁴,
冉晨²,
张思蕊²,
熊练²,
杜朝超²,
李明会^{1, 2},
沈晓倩^{1, 2},
杨姝^{1, 2},
张小芸^{1, 2},
白晓永^{2, 3, ,}

1.
贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 贵州贵阳 500025
2.
中国科学院地球化学研究所环境地球化学国家重点实验室, 贵州贵阳 550081
3.
贵州大学林学院, 贵州贵阳 550025
4.
贵州师范学院贵州省流域地理国情监测重点实验室, 贵州贵阳 550018

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(U22A20619, U24A20579, 42367008)；中国科学院“西部之光”交叉团队项目(xbzg-zdsys-202101)；贵州省科技项目(黔科合支撑[2024]重点014、黔科合支撑[2022]重点010、黔科合支撑[2023]一般219)；贵州省高层次创新型人才项目(GCC [2022] 015-1)

详细信息

作者简介:
罗青（2000－），女，硕士研究生，研究方向：城乡人口迁移与生态环境变化。E-mail：qingluo@gznu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
白晓永（1978－），男，博士，研究员，研究方向：喀斯特与全球变化。E-mail：baixiaoyong@vip.skleg.cn。

中图分类号: K901
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-02-20
- 录用日期: 2025-10-23
- 修回日期: 2025-10-16
- 网络出版日期: 2026-05-27
- 刊出日期: 2026-02-01

Study on the impact and threshold effect of rural population decline on plant diversity in Southwest China

LUO Qing^{1, 2
,},
ZHAO Cuiwei¹,
LUO Guangjie⁴,
RAN Chen²,
ZHANG Sirui²,
XIONG Lian²,
DU Chaochao²,
LI Minghui^{1, 2},
SHEN Xiaoqian^{1, 2},
YANG Shu^{1, 2},
ZHANG Xiaoyun^{1, 2},
BAI Xiaoyong^{2, 3
, ,}

1.
School of Geography ＆ Environmental Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, Guizhou 500025, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guiyang Guizhou 550081, China
3.
College of Forestry, Guizhou University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025, China
4.
Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic State Monitoring, Guizhou Education University, Guiyang, Guizhou 550018, China

摘要

摘要: 大规模农村人口减少重构了生态环境，为生态系统恢复提供契机。植物多样性变化对农村人口减少的响应及其关键临界阈值尚不明晰。为此，基于维管植物物种丰富度数据，采用随机森林模型（Random Forest，RF）、相对贡献及阈值识别等方法，探究了西南地区植物多样性变化对农村人口减少的响应及其阈值，定量评估气候变化和人类压力对植物多样性的贡献。结果表明：2000—2020年，西南农村人口减少约1.37亿，人类压力下降5.23%，植物多样性增加44.32%。超过60%的农村人口减少地区植物多样性显著增加，植物多样性平均增加约0.73种·（100 km）⁻²，增加面积为26.66万km²。大幅度的农村人口减少有助于植物多样性增加，但存在明显的阈值效应。农村人口密度与植物多样性呈非线性关系：初期显著抑制，在336.68~956.73人·km⁻²区间抑制作用减弱，当密度超过956.73人·km⁻²时，呈现正向促进作用。农村人类压力对植物多样性变化的贡献率为38.64%，气候变化的贡献率为61.36%。该研究可为促进农村地区生物多样性保护和可持续发展提供参考。
- 农村人口减少 /
- 人类压力 /
- 植物多样性 /
- 阈值效应 /
- 中国西南
Abstract: Although the global population continues to grow, the coming decades will witness the most rapid expansion of urban population in human history, primarily, driven by large-scale rural-to-urban migration. This migration alleviates human pressure significantly in rural areas, promotes the transformation of land use patterns and ecosystem restoration, and profoundly reshapes regional land spatial configurations. These changes directly or indirectly affect local ecological environments, thereby presenting both new opportunities and challenges for biodiversity. The southwestern region of China serves as a critical ecological security barrier for the country. It is not only a key area for global vegetation greening and plant diversity conservation, but also a typical region experiencing marked rural-urban migration and a pronounced decline in rural population. The ongoing and accelerating outflow of rural population in this region is profoundly reshaping local human-land relationships. Moreover, its distinctive karst landforms and ecological fragility make it highly sensitive to human disturbances. While large-scale rural population decline is reshaping the ecological environment, it also creates opportunities for ecosystem restoration. However, the response mechanisms of plant diversity to rural population decline and its threshold effects remain unclear, which hinders a deeper understanding of the coupling mechanisms in human-earth systems and constrains the scientific rigor and effectiveness of regional ecological conservation strategies.This study focuses on southwestern China as the research area. Based on vascular plant species richness data, the spatial pattern of plant diversity from 2000 to 2020 was reconstructed using a Random Forest model. The K-means algorithm was employed to identify urban-rural boundaries, revealing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the rural population and examining the impact of rural population decline on plant diversity and its threshold effects. Using the human footprint index to characterize human pressure, the relationship between the release of human pressure induced by rural population decrease and the increase in biodiversity was analyzed. Through relative contribution rate decomposition, the driving contributions of climate change and human pressure were quantified. The study addresses the following key questions: (1) Spatiotemporal patterns of population decline in southwestern rural China; (2) Impacts of population decline on the spatial distribution of plant diversity and underlying mechanisms; (3) Threshold responses of plant diversity to changes in population density; (4) Relative contributions of climate change and human pressure to plant diversity changes.The results indicate that between 2000 and 2020, southwestern China experienced a rural population decrease of approximately 137 million, a 5.23% reduction in human pressure, and a significant 44.32% increase in plant diversity. Over 60% of the areas with rural population loss showed significant increases in plant diversity, with an average increase of approximately 0.73 species per 100 km², across an area of 266,600 km², Further analysis revealed a nonlinear relationship between rural population density and plant diversity: when population density fell below 336.68 persons·km⁻², population decline exerted a suppressive effect on plant diversity; within the range of 336.68 to 956.73 persons·km⁻², this suppressive effect gradually weakened; and when density exceeded 956.73 persons·km⁻², population decline transitioned to a positive facilitative effect. Decomposition of driving factors showed that changes in rural human pressure contributed 38.64% to plant diversity changes, while climatic factors accounted for 61.36%, indicating that climate change remains the dominant factor influencing regional plant diversity.This study quantifies and reveals for the first time the nonlinear relationship and key thresholds between rural population decline and plant diversity in southwest China. It systematically elucidates the response mechanisms of plant diversity to population decline and human pressure, and clarifies the relative contributions of human activities and climate change. By analyzing the response patterns of plant diversity to rural population outmigration and identifying critical thresholds of population density effects, this research provides a scientific basis for understanding the mechanisms by which rural-urban migration influences biodiversity. The findings offer important insights for biodiversity conservation and regional sustainable development in southwest China.
- rural population decline /
- human pressure /
- plant diversity /
- threshold effect /
- southwest China

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图 1 中国西南地区高程

注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2016)1549号的标准地图制作，地图边界无修改。

Figure 1. Elevation in southwest China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2000—2020年中国西南农村地区植物多样性的时空变化

Figure 2. Spatial and temporal changes of plant diversity in rural areas of southwest China from 2000 to 2020

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图 3 随机森林模型验证

Figure 3. Validation of the RF model

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图 4 2000—2020年西南农村人口的时空变化

Figure 4. Spatial and temporal changes of rural population in southwest China from 2000 to 2020

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图 5 植物多样性对农村人口减少的响应

Figure 5. Responses of plant diversity to rural population decline

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图 6 西南地区农村人口变化与植物多样性的约束关系

Figure 6. Constrained relationship between rural population change and plant diversity in southwest China

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图 7 2000—2020年西南农村地区人类压力及气候变化对植物多样性贡献率的空间分布

Figure 7. Spatial distribution of the contribution rates of human pressure and climate change to plant diversity in rural areas of southwest China from 2000 to 2020

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图 8 2000—2020年不同影响因子主控区内植物多样性变化

Figure 8. Changes in plant diversity within areas dominated by different influencing factors from 2000 to 2020

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图 9 农村人口减少对植物多样性的影响机理

Figure 9. Mechanism of the impact of rural population decline on plant diversity

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表 1 随机森林模型中的环境因子

Table 1. Environmental factors in the random forest model

类别	数据(缩写)	单位	空间分辨率	数据说明及处理	数据来源
气候环境	年平均温度 (Tem)	℃	1 km	1982—2020年期间，年平均气温	国家地球系统科学数据中心 (https://www.geodata.cn/)
	年总降水量 (Pre)	mm		1982—2020年，年累计降水量	国家地球系统科学数据中心 (https://www.geodata.cn/)
	年最高温度 (Tmax)	℃		1901—2023年，以月计算年数据	国家青藏高原科学数据中心 (https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/)
	年最低温度 (Tmin)	℃		1901—2023年，以月计算年数据	国家青藏高原科学数据中心 (https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/)
	蒸散发 (ET)	mm	0.0083333°	2000—2019年，以月计算年数据，2020年通过空间插值生成	哈佛大学数据库 (Harvard Dataverse \| APIs and Data at Harvard University)
植被特征	增强植被指数 (EVI)	−	250 m	2000—2022年，月数据(MOD13Q1)	(MODIS Data \| Terra (nasa.gov))
	归一化植被指数 (NDVI)	−	0.0083333°	2000—2022年，月数据(MOD13A3)
	植被净初级生产力 (NPP)	g· C·m⁻²	0.0083333°	2000—2022年，年数据(MOD17A3)
土壤性质	土壤全氮 (TN)	g·kg⁻¹	0.1~1 km	2010—2018年，包含七个土壤层深度，基于三个土壤深度层的平均值计算（0~5 cm，5~15 cm，15~30 cm）	国家青藏高原科学数据中心 (https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/)
	土壤砂粒 (Sand)
	土壤黏粒 (Clay)
	土壤pH (pH)	−
	土壤水分 (SM)	m³·m⁻³	1~10 km	2000—2020年，时间步长为每日/月
	土壤有机碳 (SOC)	t· C·ha⁻¹	0.0083333°	1987—2019年，表层（0~30 cm）年值，2020年通过空间插值生成	国家地球系统科学数据中心(https://www.geodata.cn/)
地形特征	海拔 (Alt)	m	1 km	全球陆地基础高程（GLOBE）数据集	美国国家海洋和大气管理局(https://ngdc.noaa.gov/)

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2000—2020年不同农村人口减少梯度下植物多样性的变化

Table 2. Changes of plant diversity under different rural depopulation gradients from 2000 to 2020

组	农村人口减少/人· km⁻²	农村人口减少面积/10⁴ km²	植物多样性变化/种·（100 km⁻²）	EVI变化/%
1	<5	16.717	0.339	9.573
2	[5-10)	9.461	0.754	8.211
3	[10-30)	20.150	0.849	7.868
4	[30-50)	8.989	0.856	8.837
5	≥50	13.993	0.857	13.456

下载: 导出CSV

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