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Article Navigation >  CARSOLOGICA SINICA  > 2026  > Accepted Manuscript
BI Yalong, CHEN An, JIANG Yuebin, YANG Yingdong, WEI Lei. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of geological disasters and research on disaster−causing factors in Dali Prefecture[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA. doi: 10.11932/karst2026y023
Citation: BI Yalong, CHEN An, JIANG Yuebin, YANG Yingdong, WEI Lei. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of geological disasters and research on disaster−causing factors in Dali Prefecture[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA. doi: 10.11932/karst2026y023
shu

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of geological disasters and research on disaster−causing factors in Dali Prefecture

doi: 10.11932/karst2026y023
  • 1.

    School of Land and Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, China

  • 2.

    Key Laboratory of Geohazard Forecast and Geoecological Restoration in Plateau Mountainous Area, MNR, Kunming, Yunnan 650216, China

  • 3.

    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Geohazard Forecast and Geoecological Restoration in Plateau Mountainous Area, Kunming, Yunnan 650216, China

  • 4.

    Yunnan Geological Engineering the Second Investigation Institute, Yunnan Construction Foundation Engineering Co., Ltd., Dali, Yunnan 6731002, China

  • 5.

    Yunnan Institute of Geoenvironment Monitoring, Yunnan 650216, China

  • Received Date: 2025-08-20
  • Accepted Date: 2025-12-15
  • Rev Recd Date: 2025-11-26
    • Available Online: 2026-06-23
    Abstract
  • T Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture is located in the central-western part of Yunnan Province, spanning the four major river systems of the Jinsha River, Lancang River, Nujiang River, and Honghe River. Geologically situated at the junction of the Yangtze Craton and the Lanping-Simao Fold Belt, the region exhibits intense tectonic activity, well-developed faults, and complex lithology. Controlled by the Hengduan Mountains, the terrain slopes from northwest to southeast. The western region comprises the Yunling high-mountain gorge zone, exhibiting tectonic-eroded high-mountain topography. The eastern part features broad, gentle mountain basins dominated by tectonic-eroded medium-mountain and hilly landscapes. The central area is characterized by alluvial-lacustrine and fluvial-alluvial deposits. Under the combined influence of tectonics and geomorphology, geological hazards in this region exhibit diverse types, high frequency and intensity, significant spatial differentiation, and complex temporal variations.To systematically reveal the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and dominant factors of geological hazards in Dali Prefecture, this study established a three-dimensional analytical framework: “spatiotemporal pattern identification—quantification of evolutionary trends—analysis of hazard mechanisms.” Integrated methods including GIS spatial analysis (kernel density estimation and temporal overlay), Mann−Kendall trend tests, spatiotemporal hotspot evolution analysis, and the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model were employed to quantitatively identify and analyze the spatiotemporal patterns, evolution, and triggering mechanisms of geological hazards.Results indicate: Landslides exhibit approximately 5-year periodic peaks, while debris flows follow roughly 10-year cycles. 98.6% of events occur between June and October, peaking in August, with disaster frequency significantly positively correlated with monthly precipitation. Spatially, a “dense north, sparse south” pattern emerged, with high-risk zones primarily clustered in Heqing, Yunlong, and Eryuan counties.Further analysis indicates that the spatiotemporal evolution of geological hazards in Dali Prefecture generally follows a “fluctuation-gradual change” pattern, with a potential trend inflection point around 2016. Spatial hotspots show an overall strengthening trend, migrating westward from Heqing to Eryuan and then to Yunlong. The MaxEnt model identifies topography and rainfall as primary controlling factors, with slope, elevation, annual precipitation, and distance from rivers as the four key contributing factors, collectively accounting for 63.8% of the total variation. Key thresholds for high-sensitivity zones are: a slope of about 10°; an elevation range of 1200—2000 m; an annual precipitation of 800—1600 mm; a proximity to rivers of less than 200 m; and an NDVI between 0.6 and 0.8. Fault zones, areas with weak rock formations, and high-mountain canyon regions constitute highly sensitive zones for geological hazards.These findings provide decision-making support for optimizing territorial spatial planning, developing geological hazard prevention strategies, and deploying emergency response resources in Dali Prefecture.

     

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