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Article Navigation >  CARSOLOGICA SINICA  > 2026  > Accepted Manuscript
LUO Mengyao, WANG Fa, CHEN Hongsong, ZHANG Jun, LIAN Jinjiao. Study on the nonlinear response characteristics of conduit-fracture flow to rainfall in a karst small watershed[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA. doi: 10.11932/karst2026y003
Citation: LUO Mengyao, WANG Fa, CHEN Hongsong, ZHANG Jun, LIAN Jinjiao. Study on the nonlinear response characteristics of conduit-fracture flow to rainfall in a karst small watershed[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA. doi: 10.11932/karst2026y003
shu

Study on the nonlinear response characteristics of conduit-fracture flow to rainfall in a karst small watershed

doi: 10.11932/karst2026y003
  • 1.

    Institute of Subtropical Agriculture , Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, Hunan 410125, China

  • 2.

    Huanjiang Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangxi Key laboratory of Karst Ecological Processes and Services, Huanjiang, Guangxi 547100, China

  • 3.

    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

  • Received Date: 2025-05-16
  • Accepted Date: 2026-01-21
  • Rev Recd Date: 2026-01-20
    • Available Online: 2026-06-23
    Abstract
  • The intensification of global climate change has led to a widespread increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. This trend poses a serious threat to the karst regions of southwestern China, which are characterized by ecological fragility and hydrological complexity. Karst aquifers are highly developed with conduit and fracture networks that act as preferential flow paths during rainfall events. These pathways allow groundwater and surface water to rapidly converge into streams, substantially shortening runoff response times and amplifying flood peaks. As a result, the increasing occurrence of flood hazards has greatly complicated local water resources management and disaster mitigation efforts. However, the quantitative contributions of conduit flow and fracture flow to total runoff, as well as their activation mechanisms, remain poorly understood. This knowledge gap primarily arises from the concealed and highly heterogeneous nature of subsurface karst structures, which are difficult to characterize using conventional hydrological monitoring techniques. Consequently, existing hydrological models often underestimate peak discharges during extreme events in karst catchments.To address these challenges, we deployed a high-frequency electrical conductivity (EC) monitoring system with a 5-minute sampling interval at the outlet of a typical dolomite peak-cluster depression catchment in Huanjiang County, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China. Such high temporal resolution is essential for tracking rapid hydrochemical dynamics during intense rainfall events. We applied a conductivity frequency distributions (CFDs) approach to decompose streamflow into different runoff components. This method is based on the principle that water flowing along different pathways-conduits, fractures, and matrix pores-exhibits distinct EC signatures due to differences in transport pathways and residence times. CFDs histograms were fitted using a mixture of multivariate normal distributions and decomposed into conduit flow (low EC, rapid transport), fracture flow (intermediate EC), and matrix flow (high EC, slow percolation). The proportional contributions of each component were then quantified. In addition, a boosted regression tree (BRT) model was used to assess the relative importance of 56 potential controlling factors and to identify the dominant rainfall characteristics regulating conduit and fracture flow contributions. Piecewise regression analysis (PRA) was further employed to construct nonlinear relationships between key rainfall variables and the contributions of conduit and fracture flow, allowing the identification of critical thresholds for flow activation and maximum runoff capacity.The results show that although conduit flow and fracture flow contribute only 4.1% and 6.6% to annual runoff, respectively, their importance increases dramatically during individual storm events. During extreme rainfall, the daily peak contribution of conduit flow reached up to 39.2%, while fracture flow peaked at 61.8%. The BRT model identified daily rainfall amount as the primary controlling factor, with relative importance exceeding 76% for both flow components. In contrast, antecedent soil moisture and other variables played a minor role, each contributing less than 10%. These findings confirm the strongly event-driven nature of rapid runoff generation in this karst system, characterized by short response times and weak hydrological memory. Single rainfall events act as the dominant trigger, with limited dependence on antecedent wetness. The PRA results revealed a clear sigmoidal (“S-shaped”) response of conduit and fracture flow contributions to increasing daily rainfall. Two distinct rainfall thresholds were identified for each flow component. The initial activation thresholds were 11 mm for fracture flow and 12 mm for conduit flow. The saturation thresholds were 32.5 mm and 49 mm, respectively. Below the activation threshold, the contributions of conduit and fracture flow to streamflow were negligible. Beyond the saturation threshold, their contributions stabilized and no longer increased with rainfall. This plateau indicates that the transport capacities of the subsurface networks had reached their maximum, constrained by physical structure and hydraulic conductivity. The higher saturation threshold of conduit flow suggests a greater storage and transmission capacity compared to fracture networks. Once saturation is reached, additional runoff must be generated through alternative mechanisms, such as matrix flow or surface runoff, reflecting a combined infiltration-excess and saturation-excess runoff generation process in karst systems.By integrating high-resolution EC monitoring with statistical modeling, this study quantitatively elucidates the threshold behavior of rapid flow in karst aquifers. It overcomes the limitations of traditional tracer experiments and recession curve analyses, which often fail to capture transient hydrological responses in highly heterogeneous environments. The identification of dual rainfall thresholds provides a robust scientific basis for improving the parameterization of rapid flow components in both conceptual and numerical hydrological models. Incorporating such threshold mechanisms and structural constraints is essential for enhancing flood forecasting and peak discharge prediction in karst regions.In summary, studies of karst hydrological processes must move beyond linear and continuous representations of rainfall−runoff relationships. This study quantitatively demonstrates the nonlinear dynamics and dual-threshold responses of conduit and fracture flow to rainfall, thereby advancing the mechanistic understanding of preferential flow in the karst critical zone. Future research should focus on testing the applicability of these thresholds across different lithologies, spatial scales, and climatic conditions. Such efforts will provide crucial support for sustainable water resources planning and flood risk management in karst regions.

     

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