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Volume 45 Issue 3
Jun.  2026
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Article Navigation >  CARSOLOGICA SINICA  > 2026  >  45(3): 553-567
WANG Lihui, WANG Jiani, LIU Yanguo, CAI Jiangrong, JIANG Ruiyang, YIN Sijie, AN Dejun, TANG Shu, LI Qiongfang, DAI Qunwei. Evaluation and prediction of ecological sensitivity of the Xuebaoding region based on PLUS-InVEST[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA, 2026, 45(3): 553-567. doi: 10.11932/karst20260305
Citation: WANG Lihui, WANG Jiani, LIU Yanguo, CAI Jiangrong, JIANG Ruiyang, YIN Sijie, AN Dejun, TANG Shu, LI Qiongfang, DAI Qunwei. Evaluation and prediction of ecological sensitivity of the Xuebaoding region based on PLUS-InVEST[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA, 2026, 45(3): 553-567. doi: 10.11932/karst20260305
shu

Evaluation and prediction of ecological sensitivity of the Xuebaoding region based on PLUS-InVEST

doi: 10.11932/karst20260305
  • 1.

    School of Environment and Resources, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province 621010, China

  • 2.

    Mianyang Science and Technology City Branch of National Remote Sensing Center of Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province 621010, China

  • 3.

    Huanglong National Scenic Area Administration, Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Songpan 624000, China

  • 4.

    School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province 621010, China

  • Received Date: 2024-12-19
  • Accepted Date: 2026-04-14
  • Rev Recd Date: 2026-03-10
    Abstract
  • Ecological sensitivity refers to the capacity of environmental factors to adapt to external pressures or disturbances without degrading or compromising environmental quality. In essence, it reflects the likelihood and ease of occurrence of regional ecological and environmental problems. The Xuebaoding region, located on the eastern of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, features abundant karst landscapes and unique ecosystem. Highly sensitive to climate change and human activities, it serves as an ideal area for studying the evolution of ecological sensitivity. It is of great scientific value and practical significance to reveal the response mechanism of the regional ecosystem under the background of land use change for optimizing the management strategy of protected areas and promoting the harmonious coexistence between human and nature. This study focuses on the Xuebaoding region, employing the PLUS-InVEST model to simulate land use changes and analyze the dynamic variations in habitat quality. It systematically evaluates environmental quality from 2000 to 2020, predicts habitat quality for 2030, and applies the Geo Detector to quantify environmental factors. Based on these quality changes, the study investigates ecological sensitivity within the study area. The results show that:(1) From 2000 to 2020, the change of land use structure showed the characteristics of "two decreases and four increases", in which the area of grassland and cultivated land continued to decrease, with a net decrease of 294.98 km2 and 32.79 km2, respectively. However, the area of woodland, construction land, water area and unused land all showed an increasing trend. The net transfer of woodland was 227.78 km2, and the construction land increased by 166.98%.(2) From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land area further decreased with the acceleration of urbanization, and the construction land continued to expand at an average annual rate of 8.35%. The results of habitat quality assessment show that the area of extremely low ecological environment increased by 156.90% in 2020 compared with 2000, and the spatial distribution of expansion area and construction land was highly coincident, indicating that urban expansion was the main reason for the decline of ecological environment quality and the growth of extremely low-grade areas.(3) Despite the changes in land use structure, the overall habitat quality in the study area remained above 85.2% from 2000 to 2020, and the average habitat quality remained relatively stable after it was increased from 85.26% in 2000 to 86.11% in 2010, indicating that the overall ecosystem structure in the basin remained at a high level and the ecological carrying capacity was strong. However, the forecast results in 2030 based on PLUS model show the overall accuracy, and the average value of future habitat quality will drop to 85.9%, which is lower than that in 2020, and the area of extremely low area is expected to increase by 192.47% compared with that in 2000, indicating that the potential pressure on regional ecosystems continues to increase.(4) The results of Geo Detectors show that natural factors,such as elevation,slope,temperature,and precipitation, are still the dominant factors to determine the spatial pattern of ecological environment quality in the study area. Interactive detection shows that the factors are enhanced by two factors, which indicates that human intervention is significantly affecting the evolution direction and range of ecological environment quality.

     

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