Advanced Search
  • Included in CSCD
  • Chinese Core Journals
  • Included in WJCI Report
  • Included in Scopus, CA, DOAJ, EBSCO, JST
  • The Key Magazine of China Technology
Volume 45 Issue 3
Jun.  2026
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  CARSOLOGICA SINICA  > 2026  >  45(3): 539-552
HUANG Xunchao, YE Jiangxia, YIN Xiaojie, WANG Yan, LIU Zeng, TANG Jimin. Estimation of karst carbon sink fluxes from rock weathering and analysis of their spatiotemporal dynamics in Yunnan Province[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA, 2026, 45(3): 539-552. doi: 10.11932/karst20260304
Citation: HUANG Xunchao, YE Jiangxia, YIN Xiaojie, WANG Yan, LIU Zeng, TANG Jimin. Estimation of karst carbon sink fluxes from rock weathering and analysis of their spatiotemporal dynamics in Yunnan Province[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA, 2026, 45(3): 539-552. doi: 10.11932/karst20260304
shu

Estimation of karst carbon sink fluxes from rock weathering and analysis of their spatiotemporal dynamics in Yunnan Province

doi: 10.11932/karst20260304
  • 1.

    College of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, Yunnan 650224, China

  • 2.

    Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Spatial Intelligence Engineering for Cross-border Forest Protection, Kunming, Yunnan 650224, China

  • 3.

    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Ecological Environment Evolution and Pollution Control in Mountainous Rural Areas, Kunming, Yunnan 650224, China

  • 4.

    College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, Yunnan 650224, China

  • Received Date: 2025-10-14
  • Accepted Date: 2026-03-20
  • Rev Recd Date: 2026-03-18
    Abstract
  • Research on the global transfer of "carbon sources" and "carbon sinks" has revealed the potential existence of previously unidentified carbon sinks within the continental biosphere. Among these, the dynamic chemical process of rock weathering constitute a major carbon sink capable of sequestering atmospheric CO2. The carbon sink from rock weathering constitutes an integral component of this "missing carbon sink". Notebly, the distinctive biogeochemical process of rock, particularly in karst landscapes, has been increasingly recognized as a critical and persistent carbon sink. Carbonate minerals dissolve through carbonic acid formed from atmospheric or soil-derived CO2 and water, generating bicarbonate ions that are transported via river systems to the oceans, thereby sequestering carbon over geological timescales. Therefore, accurately estimating the magnitude of the carbon sink from rock weathering and understanding its spatiotemporal dynamics are essential for regional carbon assessments, climate change mitigation strategies, and policy formulation in karst-dominated regions. Yunnan Province, situated in Southwest China, is one of the country's primary karst development areas, characterized by diverse soluble and silicate rock types, making it an ideal natural laboratory for such investigations. This study aims to quantify carbon sink fluxes from rock weathering in Yunnan Province from 2001 to 2020, analyze its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, and project future trends under ongoing environmental changes.Based on a detailed classification of soluble and insoluble rocks within Yunnan Province, this study employed the well-established Global Erosion Model for CO2 consumption (GEM-CO2) model.This model estimates the CO2 consumption flux ($ {{F}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{2}}} $) resulting from the chemical weathering of different rock types by integrating surface runoff data with specific lithological coefficients ($ a $) that represent the weathering potential of each rock. The fundamental equation is ($ {{F}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{2}}}=Q\cdot a $), where ($ Q $) is the annual surface runoff. Runoff ($ Q $) was calculated using the Turc method, which estimates actual evaporation ($ E $) based on annual precipitation ($ P $) and temperature ($ T $) data, with ($ Q $) derived as ( $ P $-$ E $). High-resolution spatial data, including a 1∶500,000 geological map (resampled to a 1-km grid) and long-term meteorological datasets (precipitation and temperature) from 2001 to 2020, were utilized as primary inputs. Following flux estimation, a suite of robust statistical and geospatial methods was applied. The Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall significance test were used to detect monotonic trends in the carbon sink fluxes over the two-decade period. The coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated to assess the stability and variability of fluxes. Finally, to predict the future persistence or reversal of these trends, the Hurst exponent, derived from Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis, was calculated and combined with Sen's slope to generate a map of future trend predictions.The key findings of this study are multifaceted, (1) From 2001 to 2020, the estimated annual average CO2 consumption flux attributable to rock weathering in Yunnan Province was 187.79 × 103 mol·km−2·a−1. This corresponds to a total CO2 consumption mass of approximately 63.12×106 t and a total carbon mass of 17.38×106 t over the two decades. Significant disparities were observed among different types of lithology in their contribution to the carbon sink. Carbonate rocks exhibited the highest average annual CO2 consumption flux at 582.91×103 mol·km−2·a−1, accounting for 53.95% of the total CO2 consumed, thus establishing them as the predominant rock type driving the weathering carbon sink in the province. This was followed by shale (207.22×103 mol·km−2·a−1), acid volcanic rocks (87.55×103 mol·km−2·a−1), sandstone (56.29×103 mol·km−2·a−1), and metamorphic and plutonic rocks (51.2×103 mol·km−2·a−1). (2) The spatial distribution of the rock weathering carbon sink flux demonstrated a distinct pattern characterized as "high in the surrounding areas and low in the central region". High-flux zones were primarily concentrated in eastern Yunnan, with values gradually increasing from north to south, and in the border regions of western Yunnan. In contrast, low-flux zones were predominantly located in central and northern Yunnan. The coefficient of variation (CV) for the flux across the province ranged from 0 to 0.64, indicating varying degrees of temporal stability. Areas of high variability (CV ≥ 0.35) constituted 14.75% of the province's area and were mainly situated in central Yunnan (around Kunming, Chuxiong, and Dali), forming a pattern of "high variability in the center and low variability in the surrounding areas". This pattern suggests that the carbon sink in central Yunnan is more sensitive to interannual environmental fluctuations, potentially influenced by intensive human activities and specific lithological compositions (sandstone and shale). (3) Temporal trend analysis revealed a slight overall declining trend in total CO2 consumption mass from 2001 to 2020, with a linear slope of -0.0055, although significant interannual fluctuations were observed. Theil-Sen analysis indicated that areas exhibiting a decreasing trend (approximately 76.93% of the province's area with significant change) were more extensive than those showing an increasing trend (22.98%), with the most pronounced decreases occurring in northwestern and central Yunnan and increases concentrated in northeastern Yunnan (e.g., Zhaotong). The Hurst exponent for the carbon sink flux across the province ranged from 0.30 to 0.63, indicating a complex mix of future behaviors. Approximately 57.18% of the area exhibited a Hurst index less than 0.5, suggesting an anti-persistent trend (future reversal of the past trend), while 42.82% displayed an index greater than 0.5, indicating a persistent trend. By integrating Sen's slope and the Hurst index, future predictions were derived. It is projected that areas with an increasing trend in the carbon sink flux from rock weathering will cover approximately 39.86% of the province, mainly concentrated in eastern and northwestern Yunnan. Conversely, areas predicted to experience a continuous decrease will account for approximately 34.86% of the province, predominantly distributed in central, northeastern, and parts of eastern Yunnan.This study provides a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the carbon sink from rock weathering in Yunnan Province over the past two decades. The results highlight the dominant role of carbonate rocks and reveal significant spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in this carbon sink, primarily driven by the interplay of lithology, climate (precipitation and temperature), and potentially human activities. The predictive analysis offers valuable insight, suggesting a slight net increase in future sink areas despite recent declining trends. These findings provide crucial scientific evidences for understanding the regional carbon budget, validate the efficacy of the GEM-CO2 model for large-scale assessments, and support the formulation of targeted ecological restoration and carbon management policies in Yunnan Province and similar karst regions worldwide.

     

    • FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References(36)
  • [1]
    章程, 肖琼, 孙平安, 高旭波, 郭永丽, 苗迎, 汪进良. 岩溶碳循环及碳汇效应研究与展望[J]. 地质科技通报, 2022, 41(5): 190-198. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0193

    Zhang Cheng, Xiao Qiong, Sun Ping'an, Gao Xubo, Guo Yongli, Miao Ying, Wang Jinliang. Progress on karst carbon cycle and carbon sink effect study and perspective[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(5): 190-198. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0193
    [2]
    张春来, 黄芬, 蒲俊兵, 曹建华. 中国岩溶碳汇通量估算与人工干预增汇途径[J]. 中国地质调查, 2021, 8(4): 40-52. doi: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2021.04.05

    Zhang Chunlai, Huang Fen, Pu Junbing, Cao Jianhua. Estimation of karst carbon sink fluxes and manual intervention to increase carbon sinks in China[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2021, 8(4): 40-52. doi: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2021.04.05
    [3]
    黄炜怡, 黄芬, 谢银财, 郭永丽, 曹建华, 支传顺. 土壤改良对土壤有机碳和岩溶作用影响机制及其碳汇效应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2025, 40(6): 559-576. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.046

    Huang Weiyi, Huang Fen, Xie Yincai, Guo Yongli, Cao Jianhua, Zhi Chuanshun. Mechanism of soil improvement affecting soil organic carbon and karst processes: implications for carbon sequestration[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2025, 40(6): 559-576. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.046
    [4]
    苏丹. 岩溶洞穴水中硝酸盐来源及其对碳酸盐岩溶蚀的影响: 以贵州双河洞为例[D]. 贵阳: 贵州师范大学, 2024.

    Su Dan. Sources of nitrate in karst cave water and its effect on dissolution of carbonate rocks: The case of Shuanghe cave in Guizhou[D]. Guiyang: Guizhou Normal University, 2024
    [5]
    钟亮, 张春来, 胡芬, 曹建华. 基于Web of Science的岩溶碳循环及碳汇效应研究动态分析[J]. 中国岩溶, 2024, 43(4): 766-779, 809. doi: 10.11932/karst20240403

    Zhong Liang, Zhang Chunlai, Hu Fen, Cao Jianhua. Analysis of development trend of karst carbon cycle and carbon sink effect based on Web of Science[J]. Carsologica Sinica, 2024, 43(4): 766-779, 809. doi: 10.11932/karst20240403
    [6]
    李万阳, 宋鄂平, 潘炳臣, 梁小龙, 李陈, 王钰鑫. 岩石风化碳汇对气候和土地利用变化的响应研究: 以湖北省恩施州为例[J]. 湖北民族大学学报(自然科学版), 2024, 42(3): 419-425, 434.

    Li Wanyang, Song E'ping, Pan Bingchen, Liang Xiaolong, Li Chen, Wang Yuxin. Study on the response of karst carbon sinks to climate and land use changes: A case study based on Enshi prefecture in Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Hubei Minzu University (Natural Science Edition), 2024, 42(3): 419-425, 434.
    [7]
    曾思博. 西南地区近 40 年气候变化及其对岩溶作用碳汇的影响研究[D]. 重庆: 西南大学, 2017.

    Zeng Sibo. Climate change characteristics of karst area in SW China and its impacts on karst-related carbon sink during recent 40 years [D]. Chongqing: Southwest University, 2017.
    [8]
    赵磊磊, 雷艳娇, 陈俊松, 朱仕荣, 周建洪, 唐芳林. 蓝芙宁, 曹建华. 云南红河州石漠化演变过程及其综合治理成效[J]. 中国岩溶, 2019, 38(5): 704-712.

    Zhao Leilei, Lei Yanjiao, Chen Junsong, Zhu Shirong, Zhou Jianhong, Tang Fanglin, Lan Funing, Cao Jianhua. Evolution process and comprehensive control of rocky desertification in Honghe state, Yunnan Province[J]. Carsologica Sinica, 2019, 38(5): 704-712.
    [9]
    蒋忠诚, 章程, 罗为群, 肖琼, 吴泽燕. 我国岩溶地区碳汇研究进展与展望[J]. 中国岩溶, 2022, 41(3): 345-355. doi: 10.11932/karst20220302

    Jiang Zhongcheng, Zhang Cheng, Luo Weiqun, Xiao Qiong, Wu Zeyan. Research progress and prospect of carbon sink in karst region of China[J]. Carsologica Sinica, 2022, 41(3): 345-355. doi: 10.11932/karst20220302
    [10]
    Jia B, Zhou G. Estimation of global karst carbon sink from 1950s to 2050s using response surface methodology[J]. Geo-spatial Information Science, 2024, 27(4): 1254-1271. doi: 10.1080/10095020.2023.2165974
    [11]
    Meybeck M. Global chemical weathering of surficial rocks estimated from river dissolved loads[J]. American Journal of Science, 1987, 287(5): 401-428.
    [12]
    Suchet P A, Probst J L. A global model for present-day atmospheric/soil CO2 consumption by chemical erosion of continental rocks (GEM-CO2)[J]. Tellus B, 1995, 47(1-2): 273-280. doi: 10.3402/tellusb.v47i1-2.16047
    [13]
    蒋忠诚, 覃小群, 曹建华, 蒋小珍, 何师意, 罗为群. 中国岩石风化碳汇产生的大气CO2碳汇的分区计算[J]. 中国岩溶, 2011, 30(4): 363-367.

    Jiang Zhongcheng, Qin Xiaoqun, Cao Jianhua, Jiang Xiaozhen, He Shiyi, Luo Weiqun. Calculation of atmospheric CO2 sink formed in karst processes of the karst divided regions in China[J]. Carsologica Sinica, 2011, 30(4): 363-367.
    [14]
    覃小群, 蒋忠诚, 张连凯, 黄奇波, 刘朋雨. 珠江流域碳酸盐岩与硅酸盐岩风化对大气CO₂汇的效应[J]. 地质通报, 2015, 34(9): 1749-1757.

    Qin Xiaoqun, Jiang Zhongcheng, Zhang Liankai, Huang Qibo, Liu Pengyu. The difference of the weathering rate between carbonate rocks and silicate rocks and its effects on the atmospheric CO2 consumption in the Pearl River Basin[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 2015, 34(9): 1749-1757.
    [15]
    张宇, 罗为群, 刘美玲, 李梦琦, 张莉, 陈芳芳, 张扬岑, 陈蕊. 岩石风化碳汇遥感估算及其时空变化分析[J]. 中国岩溶, 2024, 43(4): 727-741.

    Zhang Yu, Luo Weiqun, Liu Meiling, Li Mengqi, Zhang Li, Chen Fangfang, Zhang Yangcen, Chen Rui. Estimation of the carbon sink of rock weathering by remote sensing and analysis of its spatiotemporal variations[J]. Carsologica Sinica, 2024, 43(4): 727-741.
    [16]
    王巧玲, 李双成. 云南省碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(1): 528-537. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6923.2025.01.049

    Wang Qiaoling, Li Shuangcheng. Dynamics of carbon emissions in Yunnan Province: Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025, 45(1): 528-537. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6923.2025.01.049
    [17]
    Knez M, Slabe T. Shilin: the formation of stone forests in various rock types (Lunan, Yunnan, China)[J]. Acta Geologica Sinica (English Edition), 2007, 81(1): 148-157.
    [18]
    黄安, 王燕, 田莉, 夏菁, 梁印龙, 孙敏轩, 庄元. 土地利用系统碳效应研究进展与展望: 机制, 模拟与优化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2024, 39(10): 2450-2470.

    Huang An, Wang Yan, Tian Li, Xia Jing, Liang Yinlong, Sun Minxuan, Zhuang Yuan. Research progress of carbon effect in land use system: Mechanisms, simulations and optimization[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2024, 39(10): 2450-2470.
    [19]
    Meybeck M. Composition chimique des ruisseaux non pollués en France. [J]. Sciences Géologiques, 1986, 39(1): 3-77. doi: 10.3406/sgeol.1986.1719
    [20]
    Amiotte-Suchet P, Probst J L, Ludwig W. Worldwide distribution of continental rock lithology: Implications for the atmospheric/soil CO₂ uptake by continental weathering and alkalinity river transport to the oceans[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2003, 17(2): 1038.
    [21]
    Aumont O, Orr J C, Monfray P, Ludwig W, Amiotte-Suchet P, Probst J L.Riverine-driven interhemispheric transport of carbon[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2001, 15(2): 393-405.
    [22]
    Bonacci O. Water circulation in karst and determination of catchment areas: Example of the River Zrmanja[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 1999, 44(3): 373-386.
    [23]
    Lei J, Chen C, She J, Xu Y. Spatiotemporal dynamics and future climate change response of forest carbon sinks in an ecologically oriented county[J]. Sustainability, 2025, 17(14): 6552.
    [24]
    刘凤, 曾永年. 2000—2015 年青海高原植被碳源/汇时空格局及变化[J]. 生态学报, 2021, 41(14): 5792-5803.

    Liu Feng, Zeng Yongnian. Analysis of the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation carbon source/sink in Qinghai Plateau from 2000—2015[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2021, 41(14): 5792-5803.
    [25]
    Dong S, Du S, Wang X C, Dong X. Terrestrial vegetation carbon sink analysis and driving mechanism identification in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2024, 360: 121158. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121158
    [26]
    刘智源, 李继红. 2000—2020年黑龙江省植被时空变化对气候因子响应[J]. 森林工程, 2024, 40(1): 85-97. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8023.2024.01.010

    Liu Zhiyuan, Li Jihong. Responses of temporal and spatial changes of vegetation to climate factors in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020[J]. Journal of Forest Engineering, 2024, 40(1): 85-97. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8023.2024.01.010
    [27]
    Zhou G, Jia B, Tao X, Yan H. Estimation of karst carbon sink and its contribution to CO2 emissions over a decade using remote sensing imagery[J]. Applied Geochemistry, 2020, 121: 104689. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2020.104689
    [28]
    Gao Z, He W, Yao Y, Huang J. Revealing the exacerbated drought stress impacts on regional vegetation ecosystems in karst areas with vegetation indices: A case study of Guilin, China[J]. Sustainability, 2025, 17(3): 1308.
    [29]
    曹建华, 杨慧, 张春来, 吴夏, 白冰. 黄芬. 中国西南岩溶关键带结构与物质循环特征[J]. 中国地质调查, 2018, 5(5): 1-12. doi: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2018.05.01

    Cao Jianhua, Yang Hui, Zhang Chunlai, Wu Xia, Bai Bing, Huang Fen. Characteristics of structure and material cycling of the karst critical zone in Southwest China[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2018, 5(5): 1-12. doi: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2018.05.01
    [30]
    Qi G, Cong N, Luo M, Qiu T, Rong L, Ren P, Xiao J. Contribution of climatic change and human activities to vegetation dynamics over Southwest China during 2000–2020[J]. Remote Sensing, 2024, 16(18): 3361.
    [31]
    杨卫东, 曾联波, 李想. 碳汇效应及其影响因素研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2023, 38(2): 151-167.

    Yang Weidong, Zeng Lianbo, Li Xiang. Advances in research of carbon sinks and their influencing factors evaluation[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2023, 38(2): 151-167.
    [32]
    汤颖颖, 吴秀芹. 广西岩石风化碳汇对气候变化和石漠化治理措施的响应[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 59(2): 189-196.

    Tang Yingying, Wu Xiuqin. Response of karst carbon sink to climate change and rocky desertification control measures in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2023, 59(2): 189-196.
    [33]
    王懿洁, 马传明, 郭静, 党慧慧, 黄鹏, 范威. 湖北省2019-2021年岩石风化碳汇估算及其驱动因子分析[J]. 地质科技通报, 2024, 43(2): 330-343.

    Wang Yijie, Ma Chuanming, Guo Jing, Dang Huihui, Huang Peng, Fan Wei. Estimation of karst carbon sinks and analysis of their driving factors in Hubei Province from 2019 to 2021[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(2): 330-343.
    [34]
    徐梓津, 张雪松, 陈明曼. 山地岩溶区生态系统服务时空演变特征分析: 以贵州省为例[J]. 生态环境学报, 2023, 32(7): 1196-1206.

    Xu Zijin, Zhang Xuesong, Chen Mingman. Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem services in mountainous karst areas: A case study of Guizhou Province, China[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 32(7): 1196-1206.
    [35]
    Yang R, He Y, Zhong C, Yang Z, Wang X, Xu M, Cao L. Study on the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of forest coverage rate (FCR): A case study on Yunnan province based on remote sensing image interpretation[J]. Forests, 2024, 15(2): 238.
    [36]
    唐霞, 刘永新, 马敏, 甄宏超. 内蒙古草原生态系统NEP时空变化特征及影响因素研究[J]. 自然资源遥感, 2025, 37(3): 212-220. doi: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2024019

    Tang Xia, Liu Yongxin, Ma Min, Zhen Hongchao. Exploring the spatiotemporal variations and influential factors of net ecosystem productivity in the Inner Mongolian grassland ecosystem[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(3): 212-220. doi: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2024019
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索
    Get Citation
    PDF(10048.0KB)
    XML

    Article Metrics

    Article views (8) PDF downloads(0) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    Website Copyright © CARSOLOGICA SINICA 桂ICP备05009877号-1

    Sponsor: Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Sponsored by: Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Address: No.50, Qixing Road, Guilin, Guangxi

    Post Code: 541004 Tel: 0773-5812949 7796657 Email: zgyrbjb@163.com

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.    

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return