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Volume 42 Issue 4
Nov.  2023
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Article Navigation >  CARSOLOGICA SINICA  > 2023  >  42(4): 763-774
GAO Miao, WU Xiuqin. Temporal and spatial characteristics and peak prediction of carbon emissions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA, 2023, 42(4): 763-774. doi: 10.11932/karst20230410
Citation: GAO Miao, WU Xiuqin. Temporal and spatial characteristics and peak prediction of carbon emissions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J]. CARSOLOGICA SINICA, 2023, 42(4): 763-774. doi: 10.11932/karst20230410
shu

Temporal and spatial characteristics and peak prediction of carbon emissions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

doi: 10.11932/karst20230410

  • School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China

  • Received Date: 2022-06-14
  • Accepted Date: 2023-02-23
    Abstract
  • Under the background of increasing international attention to the topic of global warming, in 2020 China was committed to peaking carbon emissions by 2030 with its enhancing independent contribution and powerful policies and measures. All provinces and localities actively respond to the commitment. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is an important source of industrial raw materials for China, but the slow industrialization and the excessive reliance of economic growth on industrial development have led to a significant increase in carbon emissions. Therefore, the purpose of exploring the historical and future laws of carbon emissions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous is to achieve the carbon peak goal as soon as possible.The research is based on the county-level carbon emission data of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2003 to 2017, sourced from Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADS) which has the longest time span (from 1997 to 2017), the widest coverage and the highest accuracy of China's data on county-level carbon emissions. By GIS spatial analysis method, trend analysis and analysis of exploratory spatial data, the temporal and spatial changes of three indicators—carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity and carbon emission pressure—are analyzed at provincial, municipal and county levels in Guangxi. According to the hierarchical combination of the three indicators, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is divided into six different types of regional carbon emissions, and on this basis, seven carbon emission scenarios are simulated in terms of future population, and social and economic development. The extensible stochastic environmental impact model (STIRPAT) is used to predict the peak of carbon emissions in different scenarios for the types of regional carbon emissions in Guangxi from 2022 to 2035. (1) From 2003 to 2017, the total carbon emissions of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region increased significantly, and the carbon emissions at the city level showed a spatial pattern of Nanning City being the highest and Fangchenggang City being the lowest. Carbon emissions at the county level showed disequilibrium. Though the carbon emission intensity significantly reduced, it showed a spatial pattern of being the highest in Laibin City and the lowest in Hezhou City. The index of carbon emission pressure increased significantly. The overall trend of variation coefficient of total carbon emissions is stable, showing high-intensity variation. (2) According to the classification and combination of total carbon emission, carbon emission intensity and carbon emissions pressure, carbon emissions can be divided into six regional types, including high total amount-high intensity-high pressure type (H-H-H), high total amount-low intensity-high pressure type (H-L-H), high total amount-low intensity-low pressure type (H-L-L), high total amount-high intensity-low pressure type (H-H-L), low total amount-high intensity-low pressure type (L-H-L), and low total amount-low intensity-low pressure type (L-L-L). According to the current scenario and future development of influencing factors of carbon emissions in Guangxi, seven scenarios are divided, including benchmark scenario, energy-saving scenario, scenario of rapid economic development, scenarios of simultaneous development of economy and emission reduction (a and b), scenario of green development and scenario of emission reduction. (3) The forecast results of Guangxi's whole carbon peak period show that four scenarios such as energy-saving scenario, scenario of simultaneous development of economy and emission reduction (b), scenario of green development and scenario of emission reduction can achieve the peak carbon emmissions by 2030. The peak time of carbon emissions is 2023, 2030, 2029 and 2030 respectively. The prediction results of reaching peak carbon emissions in different regions show that the energy-saving scenarios of H-H-L and H-L-L can achieve the goal of peak reaching. The H-H-H type and H-L-H type cannot achieve the peak goal. The benchmark scenario and the rest five scenarios of L-L-L can all achieve the peak by 2030. The L-H-L type reached its peak in 2018. The research systematically analyzes the overall and internal changes of carbon emissions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and points out the scenario mode of reaching the peak carbon emissions, which provides a strong reference for the measures and plans of emission reduction taken by Guangxi government. In the future, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region should coordinate the relationship between energy supply and emission reduction, and take specific measures for emission reduction according to local conditions by referring to the scenario model of peak carbon emissions, so as to achieve the goal of reaching the peak carbon emissions in 2030.

     

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