Research on evolution and dynamic mechanism of the ecological carrying capacity in karst rock mountain of southwest China ：A case of Guizhou Province

The ecological sustainable development is an important condition for regional sustainable development. The status of the ecological carrying capacity and whether the ecological carrying capacity can support fast social and economic development have been important issues. In this article, Guizhou Province is taken as an example, to study the evolution and dynamic mechanism of the ecological carrying capacity by the calculation of carrying capacity based on ecological footprint theory. Data on each type of land use in Guizhou have been collected and calculated from 1978-2013. The results show that: the multi-year average total ecological carrying capacity is 2,690.560 ×104 hm2. From 1978 to 1986, the average total ecological carrying capacity is relatively low with the value of 2,440.734×104hm2; then from 1987 to 1989 the average total ecological carrying capacity shows steady improvement as a transition period; and from 1990 to 2013, the average total ecological carrying capacity reaches to 2,899.654×104 hm2. However, the ecological carrying capacity per capita in Guizhou shows a generally decreasing trend for many years with the multi-year average of 0.796 hm2. Among all land use types, ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land ranks the first, accounting for 65.9%,which is followed by woodland, accounting for 25.4%, construction land, accounting for 7.2%, pasture land, accounting for 1.4%, and water bodies, accounting for about 0.13%. From 1978 to 1985, Guizhou had ecological surplus, but decreased steadily. It changed to ecological loss from the beginning of 1986 and the situation has deteriorated each year. The evolution of ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou is mainly controlled by the type of land use, land productivity and population status.