Study on the statistical prediction model of karst groundwater table in the Jiaozuo coalmine
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摘要: 针对研究区地下水系统结构等资料不完备，本文基于质量守恒原理和微积分原理，建立了地下水水位统计预测模型和水位延迟模型，并在焦作矿区得到验证。焦作矿区岩溶地下水对于降水响应结果表明，当延迟时间为10个月时，岩溶地下水水位与降水的相关系数最大，为0.83，而延时2个月和5个月时，相关系数分别只有0.71和0.78；模型观测孔水位预测结果表明，相关系数超过0.9的观测孔达60 %，相关系数超过0.8的观测孔则高达95 %；模型水位影响因素分析结果显示，在降雨、矿坑排水、地下水蒸发3个影响因素中，煤矿区岩溶地下水水位动态对降雨量响应最敏感，说明降雨量，尤其是长期稳定的补给量是地下水水位最主要的影响因素。该类模型适用性强，简易方便，有广阔的应用前景。Abstract: The Jiaozuo coalmine, 1 300 km2 in area, situates in the southeast edge of the Taihangshan uplift in China. The Ordovician limestone aquifer and the Carboniferous limestone aquifer are separated into the upper and the lower aquifer in the mining area by bauxitic mudstone. Because of the impact of the late period tectonic movement, the bauxitic mudstone lost the waterproof function locally, leading the upper and the lower limestone aquifers get some hydraulic connections, which not only aggravate the disaster accidents, but also increase certain difficulty for the restoration of mine water damage. In view of being no complete groundwater system structure data in the study area, the statistics prediction model and delay model of groundwater table is established on the basis of principles of mass conservation and calculus to discuss the response characteristics of karst groundwater to climate and analyze the main influence factors, and then provide theoretical support for mine water disaster prevention and control. The calculation results show that, when the time delay is 10 months, the correlation coefficient of karst groundwater table and precipitation is up to maximum 0.83, and when the time delay is 2 months or 5 months, the correlation coefficient is only 0.71 and 0.78. The predicting results of groundwater table by prediction model show that the observation hole of the correlation coefficient over 0.90 is up to 60 %, and the observation hole of the correlation coefficient over 0.80 reach 95 %. The model level influence factors analysis shows that the regime of karst groundwater table is most sensitive to rainfall in the coalmine area among the three factors — the rainfall, the mine drainage, and the groundwater evaporation. It is showed that the rainfall recharge response, especially the long-term stability recharge is the main factor influencing the groundwater table. The models, simple and convenient, have better applicability and application prospect.
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