Control of territorial space in mountainous urban areas based on risk assessment of geological disasters: A case study of the "9·02" debris flow disaster in Malipo county
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摘要: 文章以云南省麻栗坡县“9·02”泥石流灾害为例，为研究降雨群发性地质灾害的国土空间管控，以地质灾害地面调查为基础，采用模糊综合评价法定量开展泥石流灾害危险性评价。2018年9月2日凌晨3–4时麻栗坡县猛硐乡暴发特大山洪泥石流灾害，猛硐乡政府驻地城镇区受灾严重。该泥石流为一低频黏性泥石流沟，泥石流物源主要为中上游的降雨群发性滑坡体、沟岸坍塌物及沟床物质，泥石流堆积物在城镇区淤积方量达100×104 m3。泥石流灾害的形成条件与地形、物源、水动力作用密切相关，物源类型以滑坡为主，约占总量的98%。降雨诱发滑坡数量达614处，滑坡体物质及树木为泥石流灾害的形成提供大量松散物质来源，滑坡体上的高大树木阻塞沟道的宣泄导流，加大了沟道侵蚀作用，放大了泥石流灾害的成灾后果。采用形态调查法计算泥石流流量的结果更符合灾害实际。将地质灾害风险管控各项措施融入国土空间管控，科学部署治理措施，以山区城镇国土空间分区为依据，定量划定了泥石流的冲击区域为禁建区、波及范围内区域为限建区、治理后安全区域为宜建区。Abstract:
Mountainous areas in West China are most severely threatened by geological disasters. With the rapid development of mountainous cities and towns, there is an increased demand for more accurate risk assessments of geological disasters. Especially in recent years, extreme weather events have occurred frequently, accompanied by a sharp rise in local rainfall intensity. Consequently, the risk, damage degree, and losses associated with geological disasters in mountainous cities and towns have escalated. These intense rainfall events and major geological disasters have become more pronounced, making disaster prevention and mitigation more difficult. This study focuses on the territorial space control of group-occurring rainfall-induced geological disasters as its research objective. Based on the ground investigation of geological disasters, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to conduct a quantitative risk assessment. The evolutionary characteristics, distribution patterns, and impact intensity of group-occurring rainfall-induced geological disasters were analyzed. Governance measures were scientifically implemented, and suitable, restricted, and prohibited construction zones were accurately proposed according to territorial space zoning of mountainous cities and towns. Macro-control measures,such as source control, active avoidance, proactive prevention and control, as well as localized and intensity-based control of geological disasters,will be refined and implemented. Emphasis will be placed on integrating urban disaster prevention, mitigation resilience, emergency planning, and strategic layout to effectively enhance the capacity of mountainous cities and towns to respond to disasters. Taking the “9·02” debris flow disaster in Malipo county of Yunnan Province as an example, this study examines the disaster triggering mechanisms, risk assessment, and territorial space control of debris flow disasters. Between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. on September 2, 2018, a catastrophic mountain torrent and debris flow disaster occurred in Mengdong town, Malipo county. The urban area where the township government is located was severely affected. This debris flow is characterized as a low-frequency, viscous debris flow gully. The primary sources of debris flow materials were from group-occurring rainfall-induced landslides, gully bank collapses, and gully bed materials from the middle and upper reaches. The volume of debris flow deposits in the urban area was 100×104 m3. The formation conditions of debris flow disasters are closely related to topography, provenance, and hydrodynamic effect. According to the investigation, the total volume of solid movable materials for the “9·02” debris flow is 384.4×104 m3, including 180.4×104 m3 from the Mengdonghe River, 165.2×104 m3 from Shuichongxiang Gully, and 38.8×104 m3 from Xiangcaopeng Gully. The provenance type is mainly landslide, accounting for about 98% of the total. There are 614 landslides induced by rainfall, with the landslide masses primarily being small in size. Landslide materials and trees provide abundant loose material sources that contribute to the formation of debris flow disasters. Tall trees on the landslide obstruct the drainage and diversion of the gully, which increases gully erosion and exacerbates the consequences of debris flow disasters. The debris flow discharge is calculated and compared by the morphological investigation method and rain flood method, respectively. The calculation result from the morphological investigation method is slightly higher than that from rain-flood method for a 100-year return period, and the calculation result from the morphological investigation method aligns more closely with the actual disaster. Through a refined investigation process, this study provides a foundation for the territorial space control in Mengdong town. It examines the distribution, characteristics, stability, and susceptibility of unstable disaster-prone bodies. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantitatively assess the risk of debris flow. It is necessary to fully consider the risk level, degree of harm, and recurrence frequency of geological disasters, while allocating sufficient space for debris flood channels and ultra-high sidewall protections in curves to ensure the safety of cities and towns. This approach integrates various measures of geological disaster risk management and control into territorial space planning, aiming to eliminate or mitigate geological disaster risks at their source. Future studies can focus on the coupling relationship between geological environment carrying capacity and urban development, ecological protection, resource security, and related factors. In the management and control of territorial space, it is essential to coordinate economic and social development, urban construction intensity, restoration and utilization for territorial space, emergency response, and other activities to achieve comprehensive management and control and harmonious development between people and land. The impact area of debris flow can be scientifically and quantitatively defined into three zones: the forbidden area, the restricted area within the affected zone, and the safe area after treatment. Key aspects of territorial space management and control in mountainous cities and towns include disaster source management and control, reasonable avoidance, early prevention and control, and ensuring sufficient space. Additionally, the resilience of cities and towns to disasters must be strengthened. -
图 2 研究区地层分布及构造图
Figure 2. Map of stratigraphic distribution and geological structures in the study area
图 3 研究区3条泥石流沟分区及滑坡分布图
Figure 3. Remote sensing image panorama of three debris flow gullies in the study area
图 4 2010-2018年研究区年降水量图
Figure 4. Annual precipitation map of the study area from 2010 to 2018
图 7 地质灾害应急处置措施布置图
Figure 7. Layout of emergency response measures for geological disasters
表 1 “9·02”泥石流沟床堆积类物源估算表
Table 1. Estimations for accumulation sources from debris flow gully bed of the "9·02 " disaster
泥石流沟
名称松散堆积
平均宽度/m沟道松散堆积层
长度/m沟床堆积物平均
厚度/m松散固体物质
储量/104 m3可移动
百分比/%可移动量/
104 m3猛硐河 15 2350 1.2 4.23 95 4.02 水冲香 15 1833 1.0 2.75 95 2.61 香草棚 7 552 0.9 0.35 95 0.33 小计 4735 7.33 6.96 
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表 2 3条泥石流沟坡面物源估算表
Table 2. Estimations for material sources from the slopes of three debris flow gullies
泥石流沟名称 坡面侵蚀
分区分区面积/
km2侵蚀模数/
t·km−2·a−1干密度/
t·m−3泥石流固体物源
储量/104 m3·a−1可移动
百分比/%年限/a 合计/
104 m3·a−1可移动量/
104 m3·a−1水冲香沟 剧烈 1.44 37000 1.49 3.576 70 30 127.60 77.13 中度 3.21 2600 1.33 0.628 10 轻度 1.33 500 1.33 0.050 10 香草棚沟 剧烈 0.23 37000 1.49 0.571 70 30 20.48 12.33 中度 0.57 2600 1.33 0.111 10 轻度 0.00 500 1.33 0.00 10 猛硐河沟 剧烈 2.14 37000 1.49 1.044 70 30 68.84 48.19 中度 1.75 2600 1.33 0.355 10 轻度 8.81 500 1.33 0.896 10 合计 19.48 7.231 216.92 137.65
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表 3 沟道滑坡物源估算表
Table 3. Estimations for material sources from gully landslides
泥石流沟名称 滑坡/
处9·02泥石流 后期泥石流 固体物储量/
104 m3可移动量/
104 m3固体物储量/
104 m3可移动量/
104 m3猛硐河沟 315 229.74 176.39 107.31 73.01 水冲香沟 239 188.74 162.60 79.65 65.87 香草棚沟 60 45.96 38.47 19.51 15.72 合计 614 464.44 377.46 206.47 154.60
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表 4 形态调查法与雨洪法泥石流流量计算成果比对表
Table 4. Comparison for calculation results of debris flow discharge by morphological survey method and rain-flood method
沟名 位置 槽断面
面积W/m2流速
$ {V_c} $/m·s−1泥石流峰值流量$ {Q_c} $/m3·s−1 形态调查法与
雨洪法的百分比/%形态调查法（实际） 雨洪法（100年一遇） 水冲香 流通区 55 3.61 198.80 187.14 106.23 形成区 40 5.31 212.29 141.35 150.19 香草棚 流通区 29 3.17 91.91 57.27 160.47 形成区 20 4.73 94.59 55.90 169.22 猛硐河 流通区 65 4.10 266.37 274.25 97.13 形成区 38 6.50 243.88 251.60 96.93
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表 5 主要工程布设简表
Table 5. Main engineering layout
流域 措施 主要工程布设及效用 猛硐河沟泥石流 拦挡坝 猛硐河沟泥石流中、下游沟道纵坡较缓，且已有排导防护工程，主沟道内防护工程布设空间不足。因此，拦挡坝主要布设在沟道上游物源丰富、拦挡条件较好的上游3条支沟及右侧2条支沟，共计19座，以拦挡支沟运移下来的泥砂，抵御支沟泥石流，并防止主沟泥石流沟道物源进一步启动引发更大规模的泥石流 谷坊坝 猛硐河沟泥石流谷坊坝主要布设在上游4条支沟及右侧2条支沟，共计27座，主要用以拦蓄泥砂，形成回淤区，反压两侧谷岸边坡，增加边坡稳定性，减小沟道内物源，减弱泥石流爆发风险 排导槽 猛硐河沟泥石流流域内已有水利部门建成并运营的排导系统，效果可满足泥石流排导要求，仅在泥石流沟谷左侧下游处新建排导槽，以保护两侧居民、变电站及后期拟建村庄 香草棚沟泥石流 拦挡坝 根据物源条件、地形条件等综合考虑，拦挡坝主要布设在主沟沟道与右侧两条支沟沟口处，共4座，以拦挡支沟运移下来的泥砂，并防止主沟泥石流沟道物源进一步启动诱发更大规模泥石流 谷坊坝 香草棚沟泥石流上游主沟沟道及支沟纵坡相对较大，下蚀作用及侧蚀作用强烈，为减缓沟谷下蚀，减小沟道内物源来源，减弱泥石流爆发风险，共布设5座谷坊坝 排导槽 香草棚沟泥石流下游流经集镇核心区，建筑密集，且与315县道交汇，该段布设“V”型排导槽，以疏导洪水，排出泥砂，防止泥石流对集镇造成损毁 填方护岸 结合场址灾后恢复重建规划，并考虑泥石流排导槽的稳定性及场址边坡的稳定性，在排导槽两侧布设填方护岸工程，以平整场地、固坡并增加排导槽的稳定性 水冲香沟泥石流 拦挡坝 水冲香沟泥石流拦挡坝主要布设在主沟沟道，共计12座，以拦挡支沟运移下来的泥砂，并防止主沟泥石流沟道物源进一步启动诱发更大规模泥石流 谷坊坝 水冲香沟泥石流谷坊坝主要布设在各支沟上游，共计12座，主要拦蓄泥砂，并形成回淤区，反压两侧谷岸边坡，增加边坡稳定性，减少沟道内物源，减弱泥石流爆发风险 排导槽 水冲香沟泥石流下游流经猛硐乡集镇，且后期规划有居民区及其他配套设施，该段布设“V”型排导槽，以疏导洪水，排出泥砂，防止泥石流淤积溢流，对集镇造成损毁 填方护岸 结合场址灾后恢复重建规划，并考虑泥石流排导槽的稳定性及场址边坡的稳定性，在排导槽两侧布设填方护岸工程，以平整场地、固坡并增加排导槽的稳定性
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