山东荆泉地区岩溶地面塌陷预警分区研究

冯亚伟; 毛宁利; 李卫利

doi:10.11932/karst20240207

山东荆泉地区岩溶地面塌陷预警分区研究

doi: 10.11932/karst20240207

冯亚伟^{1, 2,},
毛宁利^{1, 2},
李卫利^{1, 2}

1.
山东省鲁南地质工程勘察院(山东省地质矿产勘查开发局第二地质大队), 山东兖州 272100
2.
山东省地矿局岩溶地质重点实验室, 山东兖州 272100

详细信息

作者简介:
冯亚伟（1990－），男，工程师，主要从事水文地质环境地质方面研究。E－mail: 1102844258@qq.com

中图分类号: P642.25；P641.8
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-01-03
- 网络出版日期: 2024-07-10
- 刊出日期: 2024-04-30

Zoning of early warning for karst collapses in the Jingquan area of Shandong Province

FENG Yawei^{1, 2
,},
MAO Ningli^{1, 2},
LI Weili^{1, 2}

1.
Shandong Provincial Lunan Geology and Exploration Institute (No.2 Geological Brigade of Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources), Yanzhou, Shandong 272100, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Karst Geology, SDGM, Yanzhou, Shandong 272100, China

摘要

摘要: 以荆泉断块岩溶水系统为研究对象，通过建立地下水流模型和数学模型，旨在实现不同环境条件下岩溶塌陷预警分区，指导岩溶水资源开发利用。结果显示：在其它条件保持不变的情况下，随着降雨量的不断减小，研究区红色预警区面积不断增大，抽水井越密集的地方，越容易产生岩溶塌陷，岩溶水开采量的增加和降雨量的变化都是诱发岩溶塌陷的主要原因。建议以岩溶塌陷为约束条件，加强区内地下水开采优化控制与布局，在保证生产生活用水的前提下，降低岩溶塌陷发生概率。
- 岩溶塌陷 /
- 预警 /
- 不同环境 /
- 数值模拟
Abstract: As one of the most common geological disasters in the Jingquan area, covered karst collapses mostly occurred in the dry seasons from 2015 to 2017. With the frequent occurrence of karst collapses, the sustainable development of economy and the safety of people's lives and property are threatened. Therefore, it is urgent for us to find out the current situation of karst collapses, analyze their influencing factors and distribution rules, and carry out the research on the zoning of early warning for karst collapses under different environmental conditions, in order to provide a decision-making basis for carrying out targeted prevention and control. In view of the frequent occurrence of covered karst collapses in the Jingquan area, based on the exploration data of karst collapses in this area, this study analyzes and studies the background conditions and influencing factors of collapse formation with methods such as mathematical statistics, numerical simulation and comprehensive evaluation model. Through numerical simulation and fuzzy mathematical methods, the zoning of early warning for karst collapses under different environmental conditions (rainfall frequency of 20%, 50%, 80% and 95%, and the increase of mining volume of 30%, 50% and 70%) is studied, and targeted prevention and control measures are put forward. The research conclusions mainly include the following four aspects: (1) The aquifer system in the Jingquan area can be generalized into three aquifer groups as a whole. The first layer—the shallow aquifer group—includes pore water in the Quaternary coverage area and shallow water in the exposed bedrock area. The second layer—the weakly permeable aquifer group—includes the Quaternary clay layer and the fractured deep aquifers of Cambrian and Ordovician in a certain depth range. The third layer—the deep aquifer group—includes Ordovician aquifers of carbonate fissure karst water and Cambrian aquifers of carbonate karst water. (2) In this study, the lower boundary of the water flow system has been set at the buried depth of 200 m in the Jingquan area. The atmospheric precipitation infiltration and the lateral runoff supply of groundwater are the main supply sources of groundwater in the study area. The main discharge of groundwater in the area is the exploitation of groundwater. The exploitation amount of the water source has been obtained through monitoring data, and the scattered exploitation amount has been obtained through investigation and statistics. (3) Given that other environmental conditions remain unchanged, the area of the red-early-warning area gradually increases with the continuous reduction of precipitation, and the degree of early warning gradually decreases from southwest to northeast. The denser the pumping wells are, the likelier karst collapses occur. The increase of karst water exploitation and the change of rainfall are the main causes of karst collapses. (4) In order to prevent karst collapses in this area, we should strengthen the management of water resources and make rational use of groundwater resources. We should also strengthen the monitoring of karst collapses in the red-warning area, and adopt a variety of engineering measures to change the geological background conditions of karst collapses to the greatest extent.
- karst collapse /
- early warning /
- different environments /
- numerical simulation

HTML

图 1 荆泉地区岩溶发育分区及岩溶塌陷分布图

Figure 1. Grades of karst development and distribution of karst collapses in the Jingquan area

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图 2 不同环境条件下地下水水位模拟结果

Figure 2. Simulation results of groundwater level under different environmental conditions

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图 3 开口型岩溶裂隙埋藏深度及预警情况/m

Figure 3. Buried depth and early warning of open karst fissures/m

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图 4 岩溶发育程度预警情况

Figure 4. Early warning of karst development degrees

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图 5 覆盖层岩性预警分区图

Figure 5. Zoning of early warning for overburden lithology

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图 6 覆盖层厚度预警分区图

Figure 6. Zoning of early warning for the overburden thickness

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图 7 现状条件，不同降雨频率下，岩溶塌陷预警分区图

Figure 7. Zoning of early warning for karst collapses under different rainfall frequency

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图 8 现状条件，不同岩溶水开采量条件下，岩溶塌陷预警分区图

Figure 8. Zoning of early warning for karst collapses under different conditions of karst water exploitation

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表 1 岩溶塌陷综合评判等级和赋值表

Table 1. Grade and assignment of comprehensive evaluation for karst collapses

因子			分级和取值
条件层（B）	因子层（C）	代号	不易发区	低易发区	中易发区	高易发区
岩溶条件（B1）	岩溶地层岩性	C1	寒武系馒头组、崮山组碎屑岩夹灰岩	寒武系炒米店组薄层－中厚层灰岩、奥陶系马家沟组东黄山段薄层白云岩	奥陶系马家沟组五阳山段中厚层灰岩、土峪段薄层－中厚白云岩	寒武系三山子组中厚层白云岩、张夏组厚层灰岩、奥陶系北庵庄段中厚层灰岩
岩溶条件（B1）	浅部岩溶发育程度	C2	较差	中等	较发育	强烈发育
覆盖层条件（B2）	土层厚度/m	C3	>15	0~5	5~10	10~15
覆盖层条件（B2）	土层岩性	C4	残积黏土	冲积黏土	含砾粉质黏土	中粗砂和细砂等
地下水条件（B3）	地下水面与基岩面距离/m	C6	10~15	5~10	2.5~5	<2.5
	地下水水位变幅/m	C7	0.5~1	1~1.5	1.5~2	>2
	地下水径流强度	C8	弱	一般	较强	强

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表 2 预测因子权重分配表

Table 2. Weight allocation of prediction factors

目的层	条件层		因子层
目的层	条件（B）	权重(WB)	因子	一级权重	二级权重(WC)
岩溶塌陷预测	岩溶条件（B1）	0.4	岩溶塌陷埋深C1	0.271	0.108 4
	岩溶条件（B1）	0.4	浅部岩溶发育程度C2	0.729	0.291 6
	覆盖层条件（B2）	0.3	土层厚度C3	0.687	0.206 1
	覆盖层条件（B2）	0.3	土层岩性C4	0.313	0.093 9
	地下水条件（B3）	0.3	地下水面与基岩面距离C5	0.438	0.131 4
			地下水水位变幅C6	0.243	0.072 9
			地下水径流强度C7	0.319	0.095 7

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表 3 不同降雨频率下，岩溶塌陷预警结果一览表

Table 3. Early warning results of karst collapses under different rainfall frequency

不同降雨频率条件下	降雨频率/%	20	50	80	95
不同降雨频率条件下	降雨量/mm	1 081.5	918.18	823.02	480.1
红色预警区/%		—	—	20.43	25.74
橙色预警区/%		—	11.52	58.79	58.39
黄色预警区/%		—	55.25	20.79	15.86
不同预警区已发生岩溶塌陷数量占比/%	红色预警区	—	—	74.14	86.21
	橙色预警区	—	20.69	15.52	13.79
	黄色预警区	86.2	65.52	10.34	—
不同预警区岩溶塌陷隐患点数量占比/%	红色预警区	—	—	100	100
	橙色预警区	—	26.47	—	—
	黄色预警区	100	73.53	—	—

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