近1 000年来百年尺度亚洲季风降水变化和太阳活动的机制联系

崔英方; 赵侃; 邵晓华; 陈仕涛; 汪永进

doi:10.11932/karst20220108

近1 000年来百年尺度亚洲季风降水变化和太阳活动的机制联系

doi: 10.11932/karst20220108

崔英方^{1, 2},
赵侃^{2, 3,},
邵晓华⁴,
陈仕涛^{2, 3},
汪永进^{2, 3}

1.
南京旅游职业学院，江苏南京 211100
2.
南京师范大学地理科学学院，虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室，江苏南京 210023
3.
江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心，江苏南京 210023
4.
南京信息工程大学地理科学学院，江苏南京 210044

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 41702180, 41572151, 42071105

江苏省教育厅2020年度省高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师培养项目

详细信息

作者简介:
崔英方（1986-），女，博士，副教授，研究方向：全球变化和资源与环境演变。E-mail:cuiyingfang86@163.com。

通讯作者:
赵侃（1982-），男，硕士生导师，博士，副教授，研究方向：洞穴古气候。E-mail:09371@njnu.com。

中图分类号: P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-03-16
- 发布日期: 2022-02-25
- 刊出日期: 2022-02-25

Mechanism of Asian monsoon precipitation variation and solar activity on a century time scale over the past 1，000 years

CUI Yingfang^{1, 2},
ZHAO Kan^{2, 3
,},
SHAO Xiaohua⁴,
CHEN Shitao^{2, 3},
WANG Yongjin^{2, 3}

1.
Nanjing Institute of Tourism and Hospitality， Nanjing， Jiangsu 211100， China
2.
Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment， Ministry of Education， School of Geography， Nanjing Normal University， Nanjing， Jiangsu 210023， China
3.
Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application， Nanjing， Jiangsu 210023， China
4.
School of Geographical Sciences， Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology， Nanjing， Jiangsu 210044， China

Funds:

41702180, 41572151, 42071105

摘要

摘要: 太阳活动与地球气候系统之间的关系一直是全球变化研究的热点，但是对于两者联系机制的认识仍存在不足。本文选取贵州董哥洞高分辨率和高精度定年的石笋氧同位素（δ¹⁸O）记录，探索近1 000年以来亚洲夏季风降水、北半球温度与太阳活动之间的关系，进而探讨亚洲夏季风的变化机制。通过功率谱和小波分析，发现太阳活动，北半球温度和亚洲季风变化均存在显著的准200年周期行为。进一步提取并函数拟和准200年周期信号，对比发现太阳活动和北半球温度变化呈现同相位联系，但与亚洲季风变化呈现反相位关系，这一结果也得到了交叉谱分析结果的支持。上述对比结果支持太阳辐射变化调控北半球温度变化的观点，同时，揭示了太阳活动影响亚洲季风变化的复杂性。地球气候系统内部驱动机制和人类活动影响有可能调节或者改变太阳辐射与亚洲季风之间的联系机制。随着人类活动加强，尤其是温室气体排放加剧，很有可能影响对流层径向温度梯度的变化，从而增加亚洲季风变化预测的不可预知性。
- 石笋 /
- 太阳活动 /
- 亚洲季风 /
- 近1 000年 /
- 相位联系 /
Abstract: The relationship between solar activity and the earth’s climate system has always been the research focus in global change， but the knowledge of the dynamic linkage between them is still insufficient. Here we provide ²³⁰Th dating in high precision and high-resolution stalagmite δ¹⁸O records from Dongge cave to explore the relationship between Asian summer monsoon precipitation， Northern hemisphere temperature and solar activity during the last 1，000 years.Dongge cave （25º17′N， 108º05′E； 680 m above sea level） is located in Guizhou Province， Southwest China. Densely-forested vegetation at the cave and in its surrounding area consists primarily of evergreen broadleaved plants. The annual air temperature in the cave averages is 15.6 ºC. The annual precipitation near Dongge cave is an average of 1，753 mm. Modern climate reveals that this study site is strongly influenced by the Asian Summer Monsoon （ASM）. Most of the annual rainfall （80%） occurs during the rainy season （from May to October） when the convective monsoon rainfall prevails， while much less precipitation （20%） occurs during the dry season （fromNovember to April）.Samples DX1 and DX2 are respectively 174 mm and 127 mm in length. Each of the stalagmites has a diameter ranging between 55 mm and 90 mm. The two samples were halved along their growth axes， and then polished. Regular annual laminations can be observed under the microscope. Within statistical error， three duplicate counts along different transects yielded a total of 1，139 bands （777 ± 30 for DX1 and 362 ± 10 for DX2）. In addition， the 230Th dating results show that sub-samples have high uranium concentrations （1.6-3 ppm） and low initial thorium contents （40-600 ppt）， leading to small dating errors （ranging from ± 7-18 years）. Therefore， the isotope chronology is based on both U-Th dating and annual growth band count.The DX1 and DX2 δ¹⁸O profiles， both with an average temporal resolution of -1 year， vary from -8.14‰ to -6.70‰. These two records show a similar pattern and isotopic range， and exhibit a series of decadal-centennial fluctuations， with amplitude shifts of 0.5‰-1‰. Therefore， the DX1 and DX2 isotope data can be pieced together to reconstruct a continuous δ¹⁸O record from 831 to 1983 A.D. （the composite DX record）. Because of higher isotope resolution and longer growth period in DX1， the composite DX record is principally based on the DX1 and extended to 1983 A.D. using DX2.Replication tests on isotope records suggest that the calcite in Dongge cave is deposited close to the isotope equilibrium， and that the δ¹⁸O signal can be interpreted in terms of climate. As suggested by our previous studies， shifts in Dongge cave stalagmite δ¹⁸O largely reflect changes in ASM， with low （high） δ¹⁸O values corresponding to strong （weak） ASM rainfall. Taking a dating uncertainty of several years into account， the DX δ¹⁸O record exhibits close similarity to the Asian Summer Monsoon Index， with a correlation coefficient of -0.42 （n=115， p<0.001）， confirming that lighter δ¹⁸O values correspond with stronger monsoon intensity.In previous studies， by tuning the speleothem δ18O time series to the atmospheric Δ14C record， solar forcing has been identified as one factor affecting the Asian summer monsoon. Here， our composite DX record provides a direct test of this hypothesis， owing to its robust band-counted chronology （-1193-1983 A.D.） and high-resolution data. Although the speleothem-based ASM （DX） record is broadly related to the solar radiation proxy， the detail comparison between the two records， especially on centennial timescales， shows distinct differences. Based on the power spectrum and wavelet analysis， we found that there are significant quasi-200-year cycle behaviors in the records of solar activity， the temperature in the northern hemisphere and Asian summer monsoon. After extraction and function fitting of the quasi-200-year periodic signal in these three records， further comparisons among them show that the change of solar activity is in phase with that of the northern hemisphere temperature， but in inverse phase with that of the Asian summer monsoon. This result is also supported by the results of the cross spectral analysis among these three records. Therefore， these observations support a view that solar radiation changes regulate the temperature changes in the northern hemisphere， and reveal the complexity of the influence of solar activities on the Asian monsoon changes. The internal driving mechanism of the earth’s climate system and the influence of human activities may regulate or contribute to the dynamic link between the solar radiation and the Asian summer monsoon. With the intensification of human activities， the increase of greenhouse gas emission is likely to affect the change of tropospheric radial temperature gradient， thus increasing the unpredictability of Asian summer monsoon changes.In conclusion， our findings reveal that both external solar forcing and internal climate variability play important roles in driving the centennial-scale ASM variations during natural climatic variability. A comprehensive analysis of the high-quality paleoclimate data and model simulations is expected to further test and refine these findings. With model simulations， the study may facilitate our better understanding and prediction of the climate response to the global warming.
- stalagmite /
- solar activity /
- Asian monsoon /
- during the last 1 /
- 000 years /
- phase relationship
注释:

1) 崔英方，赵侃，邵晓华，等.近1 000年来百年尺度亚洲季风降水变化和太阳活动的机制联系［J］.中国岩溶，2022，41（1）：143-152.

2)

HTML

图 1 亚洲夏季风、北京暖季温度和太阳辐射量对比

Figure 1. Comparison of Asian summer monsoon, Beijing warm season temperature and solar radiation

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 董哥洞石笋δ¹⁸O记录小波分析

Figure 2. Wavelet analysis of stalagmite δ¹⁸O records from Dongge Cave

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 董哥洞石笋DX时间序列的功率谱分析

Figure 3. Power spectrum analysis of time series of Stalagmite DX from Dongge Cave

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 亚洲夏季风、太阳辐射量和北半球温度对比

Figure 4. Comparison of Asian summer monsoon, solar radiation and northern hemisphere temperature

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 准200年周期上亚洲夏季风、太阳辐射量和北半球温度对比

Figure 5. Comparison of Asian summer monsoon, solar radiation and northern hemisphere temperature on a quasi-200-year cycle scale

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 董哥洞石笋δ¹⁸O与太阳辐射量记录的交叉功率谱分析

Figure 6. Cross-power spectrum analysis of stalagmite δ¹⁸O in Dongge Cave and solar radiation record

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

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