Risk assessment of karst ecological environments: A case study of Guizhou Province
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摘要: 区域生态环境风险评价具有尺度大、风险源与风险受体多、空间异质性强等特点,开展区域生态环境风险研究是识别生态环境风险水平、制定防范应对策略的重要理论支撑。文章以贵州省为例,参考相对风险模型为风险评价原则,基于自然灾害成因,综合考虑区域自然及经济状况,建立贵州省喀斯特生态环境风险评价框架与指标体系,运用层次分析法及系统聚类分析法,对各评价单元的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性、防灾减灾能力进行分析,并划分了区域风险程度等级。结果表明:贵州省喀斯特生态环境风险分布与生态环境本底和社会经济发展水平相关性明显,高风险区主要分布在生态环境脆弱的高原山地、高原峡谷地区以及综合发展水平较高的贵阳中心城区,低风险区主要分布在喀斯特分布面积少、生态本底好、自然灾害较少的黔东南及黔西北地区。Abstract: The regional ecological risk assessment is characterized by large scale, a large number of risk sources and risk receptors, and strong spatial heterogeneity. Research on this issue is an important theoretical foundation for identifying the level of the ecological environment risk and formulating the preventive countermeasures. By referring to the relative risk model as the risk assessment principle, this article, taking Guizhou Province as an example, establishes a risk assessment framework and an index system for karst ecological environment in Guizhou Province. Based on a comprehensive consideration of regional natural and economic conditions and the causes of natural disasters, the study analyzed the risk, exposure, vulnerability, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of each evaluation unit; it classified the regional risk levels by using analytic hierarchy process and system cluster analysis. The results show that the distribution of karst ecological environment risk in Guizhou Province is obviously related to the background of ecological environments and the level of social and economic development, in which the high risk areas mainly distribute in habitat fragile plateau mountain regions, plateau canyon areas and the center of Guiyang city which has a high comprehensive development, while the low risk areas are distribute in the southeast and northwest of Guizhou with less karst areas, better ecological environment and less natural disasters.
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